A Retrospect of China-US Relationship in 2016

By Tao Wenzhao

Relationship during the Obama Administration

In 2016, China-US relationship remains relatively stable. High level talks between the heads of state of the two countries were indispensible to ensure the stability of the bilateral relationship. Following the talk at the Annenberg Estate, the night talk at Yingtai and the talk at the White House in the fall, President Xi met President Obama for a talk during the G20 Summit in Hangzhou on September 3，2016. This was the last visit of Obama to China in his two terms in office and his 8th meeting with President Xi. During the talk which lasted more than five hours, the two presidents made a comprehensive and in-depth exchange of views on bilateral, regional and global issues. They affirmed the major progress made by China and the US in the development of trade relations, joint efforts to cope with climate change, setting up the mechanism for exchanges and mutual trust between the armed forces of the two countries, combating cyber crimes and promoting a comprehensive and political conclusion of the Iranian nuclear issue, and agreed that the two countries should manage and control their differences constructively and promote a healthy and stable development of the China-US relationship. As the talk was held while the US presidential election was going on, it is of great importance to ensure the stability of the bilateral relationship during the power transition between the two US presidents. After the talk, Chinese Outcome List of the Meeting between the Chinese and U.S. Presidents in Hangzhou was published, which included 35 items of content covering bilateral, regional and global issues. In a sense, the Outcome List has not only made a conclusion of China-US relationship during Obama’s two terms in office, but also provided the next US president with a basis for China-US relations, including:

--The two countries have reached a consensus in global economic management; will continue to support the inclusive and flexible international economic system that would evolve with the global reality, challenges and opportunities; finish the 15th general review of quotas of IMF before the 2017 annual meeting; and the US supports that RMB should be included in the SDR basket in October of 2016.

--The two sides have emphasized the positive significance of practical cooperation between the armed forces of the two countries in elevating mutual trust and expanding common interests; agreed to continue to deepen cooperation in areas of humanitarian assistance, combating pirates, search and rescue, military medicine, and UN peacekeeping operations; and reiterated that the mechanism for notification of major military actions and the code of safe conduct on naval and air force encounters be strictly implemented.

 --In terms of network, the two sides have reiterated the consensus reached when President Xi visited the US in September of 2015; given a high appraisal to the second China-US high-level dialog on jointly combating cyber crimes and related matters in June of 2016; and decided to continue to strengthen cooperation in this field.

--In the field of development cooperation, since they signed the relevant agreements in 2015, the two countries have started cooperation in disease control and prevention in Africa, global health, food security and nutrition, humanitarian assistance and disaster response, multilateral institutions and clean energy, and committed to strengthen cooperation in these fields. In recent years, President Xi and President Obama have promoted the establishment of historical partnership in leading the global efforts to cope with climate change and such cooperation hasbecome one of the major pillars of China-US relationship. The two countries have taken the lead in approving the Paris Agreement and during the Hangzhou Summit, they submitted their legal text of the Paris Agreement respectively to the UN Secretary-general Ban Ki-moon on the 3rd of September, making great contributions to promoting the earlier entering into force of the Paris Agreement and winning praises from the UN secretary-general and the international community. The two countries will also work out their respective development strategy for greenhouse gas emission in the middle of this century, support the International Civil Aviation Organization Conference to reach a consensus on global market measures program in October, and expected to be early participants of these measures. The two sides have also been committed to continue to take strong domestic actions to further promote the transition on both domestic and international levels to a green, low-carbon and climate-adaptable economy.

II. The Exchange Mechanism between the Two Countries

Functioning Normally

In 2016, various exchange mechanisms between the two countries were functioning normally. Over the past 7 years, the Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialog has been very important to their bilateral relations, which is the second most important mechanism only next to the summit meeting. On June 6-7 of 2016, the 8th round of Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialog and the 7th round of Sino-US High Level Consultation on Hunan and Cultural Exchanges were held in Beijing, of which President Xi Jinping attended the opening ceremony. President Xi pointed out that “the broad Pacific Ocean should not be the game-playing ground for countries concerned, but a grand platform for inclusive cooperation”. As many Asian countries are unwilling to choose side between China and the US, President Xi particularly pointed out that China and the US should “make efforts to foster common rather than exclusive ‘circles of friends’ and be the constructor and watchman of the regional prosperity and stability”, which reflected the good will and open-mindedness of the Chinese leader. The dialog went smoothly and the two sides reached broad consensus on relevant issues, as the strategic track produced 110 items of achievements, which covered bilateral cooperation, coping with global and regional challenges, climate change and energy cooperation, cooperation in environmental protection and cooperation in S&T, farming and health. Meanwhile, the economic track also reached broad consensus on enhancing respective economic policy, promoting open trade and development, promoting financial stability and reform, and strengthening global cooperation and economic governance. The US was committed to support China to host a successful G20 summit in 2016, while both sides were committed to promote strong, sustainable and balanced global economic growth, and engage in broader cooperation.

The 7th Sino-US High Level Consultation on Hunan and Cultural Exchanges has made 158 items of achievements, which covered seven broad areas including education, S&T, culture, health, sports, women, and youth. Specifically, the US would continue with the “initiative to send one hundred thousand students to study in China” and was committed to implement the “one million strong” initiative, which would send one million US students to learn Chinese in China by 2020; while the Chinese side would continue with the “initiative to send ten thousand state-sponsored students for doctoral program in the US”, the “Sino-US special human and cultural exchange scholarship for ten thousand people”, “Chinese Bridge program for ten thousand people to do research and study in China”, to promote the development of Confucius Institutes and Classes in the US, to promote friendly exchanges between the two countries, and the year of 2016 was designated as the Sino-US tourism year.

Bilateral military exchange was going on. In the year of 2016, the US continued to invite the Chinese Navy to participate in the RIMPAC-2016. The Chinese Navy sent 5 war ships, 3 shipboard helicopters, one special warfare detachment and one diving detachment to participate in the RIMPAC-2016 led by the US from June 29 to August 4h in Hawaii. The Chinese naval fleet participated in 7 exercise subjects including artillery firing, comprehensive maneuver, maritime security operation and surface ship drill, which manifested to some extent the combat capability and logistic support ability of the Chinese Navy.

III. The Discord between China and the US Continuing to Ferment

In 2016, the Obama administration continued to implement its Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, continued to stir trouble in the South China Sea and come to an agreement with South Korea to deploy THAAD in the Korean Peninsula, creating new problems for China-US relationship.

The US continued to implement the so-called “freedom of navigation program”, sending its naval ship to the South China Sea to show muscles. On January 30， 2016, the US sent USS Curtis Wilbur to the adjacent waters of Xisha Islands; on May 10, USS Lawrence was cruising near the Nansha Islands; on May 17, one US EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft was intercepted by two Chinese F-11 fighters while doing aerial reconnaissance close to the Hainan Island. On June 18, USS Ronald Reagan CVN-76 and USS John C. Stennis CVN-74 aircraft carrier battle groups were sent to the Philippine Sea for coordination exercise near the South China Sea, whose training subjects included air defense, maritime reconnaissance, sea replenishment, defensive operations, and long-range strikes, with an obvious intention to make a show of forces to China. In late June, three US destroyers, namely USS Spruance, USS Decatur and USS Momsen, were sent to the South China Sea for so-called “vigilance and monitoring”. On October 21, missile destroyer Decatur was again sent to the adjacent waters of the Xisha Islands, which aroused solemn protest from China.

On July 12, the illegal and invalid ruling on the arbitration case filed by the Philippines over the South China Sea was made by the so-called international arbitration tribunal, when the US lost no opportunity to put pressure on China with the high-ranking officials of the Obama administration making statements about it one after another. But at the same time, the Obama government also felt that what the US had done over the South China Sea issue already hit the bottom line of China, and any further step would lead to the escalation of tensions or even to the danger of losing control. Furthermore, the newly elected president of the Philippines Duterte held different position on the South China Sea issue from his predecessor Aquino III, as Duterte expressed several times both before and after the arbitration ruling was made that he was willing to open a dialog with China on the South China Sea disputes. Under such circumstances, the Obama administration began to take measures to cool down the tension. On July 25, US Secretary of State Kerry met the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi while attending the Foreign Ministers’ Series of East Asian Cooperation at Vientiane, Laos. On the next day, Kerry made an open statement at the press conference that “the arbitration is an arbitration made under the international law. This is an arbitration, which the international community, including ourselves, believes to have legal binding, as it is a judicial issue. In regard to our position, we take no side whatsoever with any of the claimers. Our position is that the rule of law should be sticked to.” He also said the time had come that “the public tension should be reduced now, and we should turn over this page and resort to various diplomatic means” to resolve the issue. He even went as far as to say that he would persuade the Philippines to negotiate with China when visiting the Philippines. Later on, the US withdrew its aircraft carriers from the South China Sea, resulting in obvious reduction of tension in the South China Sea, which might be understood as that the US policy over the South China Sea issue follows the principle of fighting without breaking. But, the US would not give up stirring up trouble in the South China Sea easily, as Obama, soon after attending the G20 Summit in Hangzhou, talked loud about American moral responsibility when arriving in Laos, expressing that the “rebalancing strategy” would be continued, American warship and naval aircraft would continue with the patrol in the South China Sea, the US would back up relevant states, and the US would not let the South China Sea be surgeless easily.

Since coming into office, President Duterte has made a lot of comments, lashing out at the US for its interference in the internal affairs of the Philippines and expressing that the Philippines would no longer want to be the “little brown brother” of the US, but would rather strengthen relations with China and Russia. Because of the position of the Philippines in the South China Sea, the policy change of Duterte has brought heavy blow to the rebalancing strategy of the US. But, the Obama administration, in spite of the situation, continued seeking to increase the intensity of its rebalancing strategy. Especially the Secretary of Defense Carter, he took every opportunity in the remaining less than 3 months of Obama’s term in office to intensify the rebalancing strategy. On September 29, Carter alleged aboard USS Carl Vinson CVN-70 berthed at its homeport of San Diego that “the US will continue to stay with its allies and partners, and we will continue to fly over and navigate where international law allows us to”, “the US continues to be the anchor of regional security of the Asia-Pacific region”, and the rebalancing strategy had entered the third phase. The US would consolidate the outcome achieved during the previous two phases on the one hand, and seek its further development on the other. First of all, the US would continue to raise the quality of its military presence and increase investment into its military posture in the region; secondly, the US would continue to promote the development of an open security network with principles in the Asia-Pacific region. The US would send its best combat personnel and combat platforms to the Asia-Pacific region, sharpening its blade and making the US troops the strongest military forces in the region. On September 30, Mr. Carter presided over the defense ministers meeting of the US and 10 ASEAN countries, at which he continued to preach that the rebalancing strategy had entered the third phase and hawk the concept of constructing a regional security network in the Asia-Pacific region, agitating the ASEAN countries to follow the US in its rebalancing strategy. Obviously, although the Obama administration is approaching to its end, it is still doing its best to add last momentum to its rebalancing strategy.

Another major discord between China and the US in 2016 was the US deployment of THAAD in South Korea. In recent years, the situation in the Korean Peninsula has been intense, and it was more so in 2016. On January 6, North Korea conducted its 4th nuclear test. North Korea claimed that it was a successful hydrogen bomb test, which the US and some other countries believed to be a major progress North Korea has made in acquiring nuclear weapons. South Korea resumed its broadcasting to the North at 38th parallel and stopped the operation of the Inter Korean Kaesong Industrial Zone. In late January, the US Secretary of State Kerry visited China and met the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for a 5-hour talk, at which Kerry used harsh words he had never used before to demand an overall embargo on North Korea. To the contrary, Wang Yi expressed that “as sanctions are not the end, the key lies in resuming dialog and negotiation”, “as a major power, China’s position on the nuclear issue of the Korean Peninsula is open and aboveboard, and steadfast, which could not be changed by anything or any mood”. On February 7, North Korea launched the “Kwangmyongsong 4 satellite” by using long-range missile technology. On February 26, the US and South Korea declared that they would study the issue of deploying THAAD in South Korea. On March 2, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2270, putting new sanctions on North Korea, which included demanding all the countries not to ship any goods to North Korea that might be used in its nuclear and missile programs, put tighter arms embargo on North Korea, and frozen North Korea’s financial assets that may be related to its nuclear and missile programs. The resolution stressed that the measures taken were not intended to cause negative humanitarian effects on the ordinary people of North Korea or on the aid activities carried out in North Korea. But it has fallen short of the demand of the US, Japan and South Korea. As a result, they have separately put more severe and comprehensive sanctions on North Korea. On July 6, the US Department of the Treasury announced sanctions on 16 North Korean officials and entities that “seriously violated human rights”, which included the supreme leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un. This was a landmark event which indicated that the Obama administration had given up the policy of “strategic tolerance”, was determined to break up with North Korea, and no longer took seeking China-US cooperation and multilateral cooperation as the major path to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. Instead, the US would, by relying on its alliance with Japan and South Korea, put full pressure on North Korea, including economic blockade aswell as military and political pressure, to achieve the goal that successive American governments wanted to achieve of making “North Korea collapsed”. In addition to economic sanctions, the US also put high military pressure on North Korea. On January 10, the US sent a B-52 bomber flying over the Korean Peninsula to demonstrate its strength; on March 7, the US and South Korea conducted their largest joint military exercise, and sent seventeen thousand and three hundred thousand troops respectively to the exercise, with the USS John C. Stennis CVN-74 and B-2 stealth bombers participating in the drill.

In May of 2016, the 7th National Congress of Korean Workers’ Party was held in Pyongyang, at which Kim Jong-un was hailed as the Chairman of the Workers’ Party. During Kim Jong-il’s era, denuclearization was still held as the basic principle in North Korea, while the 7th National Congress of the Workers’ Party reconfirmed the route of pushing economic construction and nuclear weapons development simultaneously approved by the plenary session of the central committee of the Workers’ Party in 2013, which indicated that North Korea would not abandon its nuclear program under any circumstances and North Korea’s nuclear status has been formalized. On June 22, North Korea launched two “Musudan” intermediate-range ballistic missiles, of which the first one exploded after a flight of 150-160km, while the second crashed after a flight of about 400km. It is known that the minimum range of the “Musudan” missile is 500km, while its maximum range is 4000km, whose striking range covers the whole of Japan and the US military bases in Guam. In 2016, North Korea was suspected to have test launched the “Musudan” missiles several times, of which all failed.

After North Korea conducted its 4th nuclear test on January 6, 2016, the US took the opportunity to advocate deployment of THAAD in South Korea. The military committees of both US Senate and the House of Representatives urged President Park Geun-hye of South Korea respectively to make up her mind on the deployment of THAAD, while high-ranking officials of the US talked several times about the necessity and importance of deployment of THAAD. On January 13, President Park Geun-hye finally gave up the so-called “Three-No” policy, namely no request to the US, no consultation between  the South Korea and the US, and no decision by the South Korean government, expressing that South Korea “would consider introducing THAAD from the perspective of national security and interests.” The South Korean military that already had the intention to deploy THAAD lost no time to follow up, explaining the necessity of deploying THAAD from the angles of military and security, and pointing out that China opposing the deployment of THAAD in South Korea was “interference in South Korea’s internal affairs” and “sheltering North Korea”. On March 4, the US and South Korea signed an agreement to set up a joint working group, which has already begun formal consultation about the deployment of THAAD. Four months later, on July 8, the US and South Korean military issued a joint statement, stating that they had decided to deploy THAAD in South Korea, which could be put for operation by the end of 2017 at the latest. On July 13, the Park Geun-hye government declared that the THAAD system would be deployed at Gyeongbuk Seongju about 200km to the southeast of Seoul.

China has firmly opposed the decision of the US and South Korea to deploy THAAD in South Korea. On July 24, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se in Vientiane, Laos, when Wang Yi solemnly pointed out that China and South Korea were close neighbors and cooperation partners. In recent years, China and South Korea carried out all-round cooperation, which brought concrete benefits to the peoples of both countries. Nevertheless, the deployment of THAAD in South Korea would damage mutual trust between the two countries. THAAD was not simply a matter of technology, but a real strategic matter. If THAAD would be finally deployed in South Korea, it would create negative impact on the situation of the Korean Peninsula, regional stability and China-South Korea relationship. Wang Yi also advised South Korea to seriously consider China’s legitimate and reasonable concerns, weigh the pros and cons, to be double cautious, look before leap, and cherish as well as well maintain the hard won good situation. But, South Korea would not give an ear to China’s legitimate and reasonable concerns.

On August 3, North Korea launched two “No-dong” intermediate-range missiles, whose range covered the whole of Japan, and one of which fell in the exclusive economic zone of Japan, arousing fear in Japan. At Japan’s request, the UN Security Council called an emergency meeting, at which the US proposed a draft statement strongly condemning North Korea, while China requested the following be included in the statement: all the parties concerned should not take any action that would provoke each other and escalate the tension, and should not deploy any new anti-missile stronghold in Northeast Asia under the pretext of coping with North Korea’s nuclear and missile issue.

On September 6, President Obama met President Park Geun-hye while attending the ASEAN Summit in Laos, where they discussed profoundly the threat posed by North Korea and determined to implement every sanction passed by the UN Security Council, leaving them without loopholes. Obama also “confirmed the US commitment to ensure South Korea’s security, including the use of extended coercive means, and its unswerving constancy to such commitment”, and insisted on deploying THAAD in South Korea.

On September 9, North Korea conducted its 5 th nuclear test on its National Day. The nuclear test conducted at Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Hamgyongbuk-do had an estimated yield of 10 kilotons (the nuclear bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima was 15 kilotons), which was the largest nuclear test North Korea has ever conducted so far. This test was only 8 months from the last one, whose interval was also the shortest. Currently, the UN Security Council is busy discussing new resolutions on North Korea.

The decision the US and South Korea have made to deploy THAAD in South Korea has been strongly opposed by China. THAAD is used to intercept short, intermediate and long-range ballistic missiles at terminal phase and the height of intercept is about 40 to 150 km. As Seoul is very close to North Korea, the range of the striking ballistic missiles from North Korea to Seoul is very short and the highest point of their trajectory is no more than 40 km. As a result, THAAD cannot efficiently defend Seoul. As a matter of fact, North Korea can attack Seoul with conventional artilleries, which are more than enough. As the detection range of TPY-2 radar used by THAAD is from 870km to 1500km or even can be 3000km, if the radar aimed at China, it could provide warnings 10 minutes earlier than the ones deployed in Alaska when China launched intercontinental ballistic missiles from its interior and west to strike the middle and western regions of the US, which means longer warning time for the US. In fact, the deployment of THAAD in South Korea is intended to protect the US Pyeongtaek and Kunsan military bases in Gyeonggi Do and Jeollabuk-do as well as the military bases in Okinawa and Guam.

On August 25, at a regular press conference of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, the spokesman from the Ministry Wu Qian was quoted as saying: the US deployment of THAAD in South Korea was not simply a tactical issue, but a strategic one, which would offset the regional strategic balance, damaging China’s strategic interests and the strategic mutual trust between China and the US as well as between China and South Korea. The deployment of THAAD in South Korea was just like opening a “Pandora’s box” in the region, whose ill effects could not be belittled. Although the US expressed several times officially that the detection range of THAAD radar was only several hundred kilometers, according to the reports of the South Korean media, Henry Obering, Director of MDA of the US Department of Defense, revealed while visiting South Korea recently that THAAD could be changed from “terminal mode” to “frontier mode” in a very short time, and when in “frontier mode” the radar detection range could be over one thousand kilometers. In order to counter THAAD, China and Russia held a joint computer-enabled anti-missile defense exercise code-named Aerospace Security-2016 for the first time in May of 2016 at the Scientific Research Center of Russian Aerospace Defense Forces, through which the two countries wished to enhance their capability to protect their homeland from the unexpected and provocative attacks of ballistic and cruise missiles. China and Russia will hold their second anti-missile exercise in 2017.

 (The author is Honorary Academician of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This article was received on Nov. 20, 2016)