Prospect of International Strategic and Security Situation in 2011-Gao Zugui

Gao Zugui, director of Institute of World Politics of Institute of China Contemporary International Relations, researcher and doctor, special researcher of Peace and Development Research Center.

        From 2011, the 21^st century will open its second decade. The energy and variables of the international situation development accumulated in the first decade together with political, economic and social effects caused by financial and economic crisis will further interact and continue to simmer, truly put the world into the "post-crisis era", and promote the reform and adjustment in greater depth and a broader level, making the complexity and variability of the international strategy and security situation of becoming more prominent.

First, the trend of world economic recovery is increasingly clear, but the multiple risks are still prominent.

In general, the most difficult period of world economic situation is over and a moderate recovery trend will become increasingly clear, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth rate in 2011 will be 4.2%, but the world economy will continue to show " high in South and low in North”, and growth rate of developed economies and emerging and developing economies will be 2.2% and 6.4% respectively in 2011, with prominent uneven and uncoordinated growth situation. Developed economies will continue to be burdened with high deficits, inflation expectations and the jobless recovery and other problems, and are sluggish in growth. Following Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Hungary and other countries are also considered for the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis, if crisis spread further to other Member States, the EU’s economic development will continue to suffer. Whether the measures for EU to slightly adjust "Lisbon Treaty" and strengthen mechanisms for long-term relief can play a stabilizing role of the EU and the euro still faces a test. The United States continues to maintain a recovery trend, but the causes of the crisis have not been lifted, so a new round of "quantitative easing" monetary policy and other economic stimulus measures even other "evil trick" may be implemented. The emerging and developing economies will continue to keep a relatively strong growth, but they have relatively high risk facing multi-factual pressures such as the influx of "hot money", and endogenous rise in both inflations. In this context, the aftermath of financial crisis may occur in local areas, but the risks of lacking solidness, vulnerability and downside risk of the world economy remain in existence.

       On the one hand, The world’s major economies continue to struggle against crisis and recession, on the other hand, they take further adjustment of economic structure, promoting economic growth, strengthening financial regulation and economic macro-control mechanism as the primary task, and shift the focus of economic development to enhance the economic development potential, enhance competitiveness and expand market share, seek new industry initiative and so on. International competition focusing on these areas will be in full swing in the "post-crisis era" to promote competition in comprehensive national strength to develop in depth and breadth. Various Protectionist measures under disguise increase trade war atmosphere, and the exchange rate changes of major currencies such as U.S. dollar, yen, and euro may further stimulate the monetary war.

    Second, recent and mid-term strategy adjustment of the main forces is expanded further, but they will be tested.

With the increasingly clear trend of multi-polar structure in the "post-crisis era", in 2010, the main countries are focusing on this new reality, to compete in accelerating strategic planning and adjustment, giving priority to economic and social development, coordinating development and security, taking into account both reality and long-term development, domestic and international, trying to achieve comprehensive and sustainable development to seek a favorable strategic position and comparative advantage. In 2011, these strategies adjustment will be further expanded and implemented, and will be affected to varying degrees by the domestic political  and a new international political change preheated by the 2012 US general election.

      As the birthplace and disaster area of global financial crisis, the implementation of "reform" act is prominent for the U.S. to revive and prevent a "Number 2 in the world”. In domestic, it gains all efforts in "economic revitalization" .i.e., reviving traditional industries such as autos industry, and vigorously developing the emerging industries such as smart grid and new energy. At abroad, it restructures and relocates forces, reshapes traditional allies in the relationship with Europe, Japan and South Korea, builds the new framework of relations with India and Russia, increases the intensity of participation in multilateral mechanisms, and tries to dominate the international order conversion. After Mid-term elections, the U.S. domestic political environment becomes more complex, the constraints from the Republican Party that the Obama Administration faces are increased significantly. Although a strategic reorientation will be able to maintain, the implementation of policies such as climate change, clean energy, and nuclear strategy adjustment may be weakened apparently.

Other developed countries have tapped their own advantages to avoid the further fall of their own position in the process of re-shuffling of the powers. The EU launched the "Europe 2020 strategy", the new trade strategy and energy strategy, and officially establish "Foreign Department" to explore the integration of defense forces. In 2011, the adjustments of the British Cameron government in US-European relations, the effect of the reform including retirement system in France, particular, the changes of German domestic and foreign policy, and the development of interactive relationship of Britain, France and Germany will all directly affect the EU’s strategic direction. Japan’s Democratic Party government still faces power crisis, which has to continue efforts to consolidate its ruling status, and in foreign relations, "Japan-US alliance as the base axis" and "paying attention to Asia" are taken into account, "National Defense Program Outline" is begun to be launched in the next five years to seek a new alliance relationship with the United States.

Emerging countries, with more favorable economic development situation, take efforts to improve the external environment and enhance the international status. Russia further promote "modern strategy" from now until 2020, and relying on the needs of this strategy to rebuild the relations with the United States, European Union and NATO, paying more attention to the development of Far East region, increasing the attention and investment to the Asian and Pacific Affairs, but the possible changes of the relationship between Medvedev and Putin with approaching election will directly affect the forward of these initiatives. India will continue to strive for maintaining the momentum of economic growth, and will continue to advance the cooperation with emerging powers such as China, Russia and Brazil while greatly improving strategic partnership relations with countries such as the United States, Britain and France, and strive to improve the status in the UN Security Council and other multilateral international organizations. The Brazil Dier Ma government will continue "Lula route", to improve people’s livelihood and enhance Brazil’s international influence in regional and international affairs, including the possibility of support for Lula to seek the post of UN Secretary-General and so on.

     In the process of further expanding the strategic adjustment for major forces, as witnessed in 2010, the United States makes further implementation of its strategic adjustment as "world leader", which will be the most important force in changes in international situation, and the strategic adjustment of other powers will still be based on or accompany with the change of U.S. strategy.

    Third, competition between major powers faces a rising trend and the relationship interactions are more complex and varied.

As the modest recovery of world economy, the importance and urgency of common anti-crisis and anti-recession have gradually declined, especially the aforementioned countries promote their recent and mid-term internal and external strategies and are constrained by domestic political fetters; the former hot "same boat "situation would be cool; the power to strengthen coordination may be further weakened; differences may be further highlighted; competitive factors continue to develop; issues of cooperation and strategies of competition began to be prominent; the complex relationship and sensitive resistance may become more prominent; and the concept of realism and power politics and the Cold War mentality could be once again highlighted. In this context, the competition of the comprehensive national strength, market space, new industrial advantages, network and other "global commons" ownership, financial and economic international order, especially the right to speak and development models of financial economy order change and other aspects may become more intense and develop in depth and breadth.

In the restructuring process of this round of powers relations, the Western developed countries take efforts to maintain their original position in the international system and to safeguard their leading position in the international system, while the emerging powers and regional powers are seeking to expand their advantageous position in regional pattern and the influence in the remodeling process of the international order. These two trends will continue to develop, and the friction and collisions between the two plates will become more prominent. Developed countries may further suppress to the latter while continuing to seek the cooperation and support of emerging countries and regional powers. Especially the competition and friction between the United States’ efforts to maintain leadership and other powers’ demands in advancing position will be further demonstrated in many aspects. At the same time, the competition and cooperation within developed countries and between emerging powers and regional powers will have a new development.

In the promotion of the strengthening of competition and cooperation between big powers, various power mechanisms will be brewing new changes. The United States, Europe and Russia will continue to explore a new European security framework after agreeing to establish European missile defense system. NATO, as the important security mechanism including major Western countries, will promote the third new strategy launched in late 2010 after the Cold War to become “more effective”, “more participation” and “ more efficient" in security and political fields of "outside zone". US-Japan alliance, relying on the experience of past 50 years, will determine the development orientation of “the next 50 years” for “changing strategic environment". Group of Twenty (G20), as the mechanism including the major countries that is most concerned since the global financial crisis, will explore new ways to play a "primary platform for global governance" role after the low tide of Toronto and Seoul Summit. Group of Eight (G8) will explore new directions in the expansion and realignment of functions to prevent the position of being further marginalized in the promotion of France as Rotating Presidency Country. "BRIC" mechanism will further explore the issue of the expansion while continuing to strengthen practical cooperation and the joining of South Africa may be put on the agenda. "Group of 77 and China" that rose in Climate Change Conference in Cancun is facing a new situation in Conference in Durban, and South Africa. "The four countries that fight for a permanent member state of UN Security Council" (Japan, Germany, India and Pakistan) in the Security Council reform may be changed after the United States, France and Russia clearly support India, thus affecting the formation of some combinations of the major countries around the issue.

4. The international security still faces multiple challenges, with its comprehensiveness and complexity more prominent.

Under the background that the world economic security risks remain stubbornly high, the atmosphere of trade wars and currency wars is intense, and the military strategies of the major powers pay more attention to enhance the comprehensive capacity of dealing with diversified threats, the international nuclear disarmament, the nuclear arms control, and the nonproliferation situation have produced new changes. The new treaty that the United States and Russia reduce and limit strategic offensive arms will enter the implementation stage after approval by their respective parliaments. The Nuclear Security Summit and Non-proliferation Treaty Review Conference will continue to be held in France and South Korea. And the issue of building nuclear-free zone in the Middle East will be under discussion. Meanwhile, the United States, Russia and other major countries continue to transform the ways to modernize the nuclear weapons and ensure their own nuclear deterrent. Britain and France avoid fund shortages and maintain or even strengthen their nuclear strike forces through joint nuclear test. The North Korean and Iranian nuclear issues will continue to tangle. The breakthrough of nuclear energy cooperation between the United States and Vietnam, and between Japan and India may cause more countries follow suit. The security risk of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and nuclear fuel is still high. And the actual combat level of networks remains stubbornly high. The drills of the US-European offensive and defensive network battles lead to the following of more countries. The Korea Information Security Command will enter actual combat in 2012. Russia, Korea and Israel have possibly made a progress in establishing cyber-army. The "Wikileaks Event" boosts the thinking of the network security around the world and the concerns towards network security risk from the other side. The Space competition continues to intensify. The U.S. aerospace development direction is considered to be adjusted. Russia continues to create “Global Navigation Satellite System”. Japan continues to advance the lunar exploration program with the goal to build an unmanned space station by 2020. Italy implements the new ten-year space program which costs ten billion dollars. Such situation makes it more urgent to strengthen space cooperation and actively construct the order of space.

At the social level, terrorism and counter-terrorism will gradually enter the "Post Bin Laden Era". Afghanistan and Pakistan are still the high-risk areas for terrorism. Yemen and Somalia as important hotbeds for terrorism will attract more concerns. The "local terrorism" of the U.S. and Europe will gain further development. The “letter bomb” and the terrorist incidents in Sweden indicate that terrorism is more likely to spread to a larger scale and the means of terrorism will be further renovated. At the same time, the social conflicts in developed countries are intensified, radicalism and xenophobia rise, and the social and political ecology deteriorates. The upsurge of the American "Tea Party" manifests the rise of the low-rise public discontent, and the constant EU strikes and demonstrations and the rising conservatism thoughts have been pushing up the influence of the radical and xenophobic forces. This state of affairs provides soil and opportunity for the development of violence and terrorist forces, both of which may form a resonance. In addition, natural disasters, food crises, epidemics, pirates and other threats are still grim, which still needs dealing with by the combined efforts of the international community through seeking more effective ways.

5. The restructuring of the Asia-Pacific pattern is further deepened, and multiple games continue to unfold.

Changes in the world economic order, strategic adjustments and reorganization of relations among major powers and the complexity and grimness of the international security situation project Asia-Pacific, leading to profound changes in the regional pattern. While the United States fine-tune the strategies in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and enhance the strategic partnership with India, its "forward deployment diplomacy" strategy to strengthen its leadership position in the Asia-Pacific will develop further. Along the three tracks of “shaping the future economy”, “strengthening the regional security”, and “supporting democracy and spreading universal human values”, the United States will continue to increase the participation of regional mechanisms by reshaping and strengthening the traditional allies relationships of Japan, Korea, Australia, etc, and the emerging partnerships of Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia, etc. The intensity of rivalry among other major powers in the ASEAN, Central Asia, South Asia and marine correspondingly increases. The Asia-Pacific multi-polar system constituted by the United States, Russia, Japan, India, Korea, Australia and the ASEAN is further nurtured. Such rivalry of the major powers develops further and interweaves with the economic restructuring, political restructuring and social transformation of many countries within the region, especially Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Thailand, Burma, Japan and other countries, the political developments of which remain in flux. Interacting with the changing situations of many hot and difficult issues, the North Korean and Iranian nuclear issues, Afghan-Pakistani situation and the Western Pacific Ocean disputes may still be subject to crisis. With the combined action of these three factors, the multiple contractions of the region will make further development.

This in-depth development and interaction of the multiple factors and multiple contractions will mainly be embodied in the changes of a number of cooperation mechanisms in the Asia-Pacific region. Since Russia and Australia joined in 2010, the Eurasian conference has faced the problem that more non-Asian countries want to expand the participation; ASEAN defense ministers’ meeting and the East Asia Summit will reposition the function keys and development direction after the participation of the United States and Russia; the Mekong River Commission will face the issue of how to develop after the increased support of the United States, Japan and South Korea. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) will continue to implement the “Bogor Goals”, and effectively promote the construction of the Asia-Pacific free trade zone. The United States as the host of the APEC Leaders’ Informal Meeting in 2011 will actively push the “Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement” (TPP) to continue negotiations and to expand, with the goal of building the Pacific free trade system, making it difficult to deal with the relationship of these two mechanisms. The changes of these mechanisms interweave collaterally with the development of China-ASEAN (“10 +1”) and the ASEAN–China, Japan and South Korea (“10 +3”) mechanisms, etc. existing in the Asia Pacific region before. The competition, collision and restructuring become more prominent, making the game of the construction and deconstruction of multilateral mechanisms within the whole Asia-Pacific region fiercer.

In the above-mentioned different levels and areas of major changes and adjustments, the influence of “China factor” will continue to increase, and the influence action on the international and regional situation changes becomes more apparent. The outside world, especially western countries and neighboring countries will further raise the sense of crisis, anxiety and urgency to deal with "the rise of China", while continuing to strengthen the assistance and cooperation of China. The attitude towards China is more complex and sensitive, and the alert, precaution and containment increase. The gap in the mutual understandings between China and the world, the friction of behaviors, the collision of interests and the battle of public opinions will be more intense. The interaction between China and the world will enter the complex and sensitive critical stage. The negative factors and uncertainties will be further increased, which could get worse and even lead to serious conflicts if not handled properly, whereas, the numerous factors will be concentrated on the interaction between China and the neighboring countries and on the formation and development of Asian system including China. How to proceed from the periphery to promote China’s relations with the world to develop in a positively interactive way has become increasingly important and urgent.