Prospect of Iran Nuclear Issue and Its Influence on Relations between Great Powers---Hua Liming

Hua Liming     Former Ambassador of China in Iran

Iran nuclear issue involves the confrontation between a superpower and Islamic power which lasts for the longest period and influences the world most after the Cold War as well as a severe test for the world nuclear nonproliferation system. Such issue entails games between those powers and the solutions to the issue directly influence the prospect of the Middle East.

I. Main Motivation of Iran for Owning Nuclear

Iran has strong and irreversible determination to have the nuclear. Just as the senior statesman of U.S. Democratic Party Zbigniew Brzezinski said “Iranians have found the way to own highly enriched uranium and they will never give up.”

First, Iranians irrespective of their religious and political beliefs dream for “a powerful country”. Contemporarily, owning nuclear skills is regarded as an important mark for a powerful country. When Iranians look around such countries as Russia, India, Pakistan and Israel who own nuclear capability, they begin to see owning nuclear as their ideal and pursuit.

Second, after Islamic regime is established in Iran, its safety situation is always in danger. The Iran-Iraq War, the Gulf War, the Afghanistan War and the Iraq War happened in Iran or its neighborhood one after another. The United States regards Iran as the “axis of evil” and constantly threatens to overthrown the Iran regime. In view of this, Iran regime is in urgent need of mastering nuclear skills and uses it as deterrent force to protect itself from the adversity of Saddam.

Third, Iran strongly desires to be the leader in that region. After Afghanistan War and Iraq War, the military power of Iran is rapidly expanded, which even influences Iraq, Afghan, Hezbollah of Lebanon in the heartland of Arab and Pakistan Hamas. To be the power of that region, Iran requires for owning nuclear forces and long and medium-range missile launching capabilities.

Fourth, the adversarial relations between the United States and Iran are the fundamental reason for Iran’s firm determination to have nuclear. Since Iranian “Islamic Revolution” in 1979, the United States has always regarded Iran as the hostile regime and attempted to make a change in its regime. Iran has viewed the United States as the biggest threat to its safety and sought to expel the U.S. force out of the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. After the nuclear issue of Iran was exposed in 2003, the United States felt anxious that Iran with its nuclear may threaten the US strategic interests in the Middle East on one hand, and it attempted to crush Iranian regime with the international forces in the name of nonproliferation of nuclear weapons on the other. Under the pressure from the United States, the nationalist sentiment of the masses of the Iranians increasingly upsurges and the nuclear issue is evolved into the national tragedy. Meanwhile, the radical Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with strong will to fight against the United States was selected as the President and the production of highly enriched uranium was resumed promptly. In view of the domestic political situation, the Iran government has no other choice for nuclear issue.

II. Development Prospect of Iran Nuclear Issue

Iran confirmedly declares that it develops nuclear at the aim of peace and without any intention to make nuclear weapons. However, its nuclear plan is non-transparent and controlled by the revolutionary guards. There is the ground for the international community to doubt about and distrust the intention of Iran to develop nuclear plan. Iran’s nuclear weapons will cause the nuclear arms race in the Middle East and may cause the further proliferation of nuclear weapons. However, the US-led western countries insist on solving this problem with sanctions or undiplomatic means, which may make the Iran nuclear issue and even the regional situation more complicated.

First, the UN Security Council, under the leadership of the United States, keeps imposing pressure to Iran. The main means for putting pressure on Iran including applying sanctions and making military option available. The United States desires for the support from the UK, France, Russia, China and Germany to increase pressure on Iran. According to the upgrading map chart of the United States, each upgrade means more serious sanction on Iran. Once such sanction exceeds the endurance of these five countries, it will be difficult for them to be in line with the United States because these five countries all have huge economic interests in Iran. If they always increase sanctions on Iran with the United States, Iran will make no compromise and may stop cooperation with International Atomic Energy Agency or even quit from Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Such means will intensify the confrontation and the prospect is not promising.

Second, the United States will resort to the military option to force Iran to submit. During Bush-administration, the United States stressed that it reserved its military option to Iran all through the way. After Obama took the office, in view of the needs for domestic and foreign affairs, the United States gave up its emphasis on forcing Iran with military option and the risks for launching wars are decreased dramatically. But since Israel constantly imposes pressure to the United States, such possibility remains that the United States begins to resort to the military option to Iran once major reversion happens to its domestic politics. Then, a destructive war will occur, bringing about serious damage to peace of Middle East and the world.

Third, Iran nuclear issue can be resolved through the peaceful negotiation between the United States and Iran. The Iran nuclear issue lasts for such a long period is fundamentally attributed to the mistrust and hostility between the United States and Iran. There is still possibility for conducting the U.S.-Iran negotiation. Historically, the United States cooperated with Iranian regime for several times secretively. Around the time of Obama taking the office, it was emphasized that the negotiation could be conducted with Iran but the results of Iran general election disappointed the United States. The USA changed its attitude and placed its hope on the change of Iranian regime and continued to be keen on sanctions. In its own interests, Iran needs to improve the relations with the United States, but at present the ruling party in Iran has fewer choices in domestic politics and the United States asks for a higher price. But the crux of breaking deadlock of Iran nuclear issue lies in ending the U.S.-Iran hostility and achieving the normalization of U.S.-Iran relations.

III. Influence of Iran Nuclear Issue on Big Power Relations

Russia, EU and China hold the common interests with the United States on the nuclear nonproliferation but they still have their special interest in Iran. Iran nuclear issue is a severe test for US-Russia, US-EU and Sino-US relations.

First, influence on US-Russia relations. The United States is determined to occupy Iran as its strategically important area for controlling the Middle East and even the whole Eurasian Plate. Iran, governed anti-American Islamic regime, is the serious trouble of dangers for the USA. The United States intends to change the Iran regime by involving in its nuclear issue, which is of greater strategic significance than that of nuclear proliferation. Iran is of key strategic significance for Russia who regards Iran as the strategically strong point of its south wing. Iran is exceptionally important for Russia to come back to the Middle East, establish the image of power as well as pin down and weaken the United States. Since the beginning of 1990s, Iran has become the traditional partner for the United States to check radical Islamic force of Sunnite in the North Caucasus and keep its influence in Afghan; Iran can assist Russia in checking the Turkey’s strategic expansion in Trans-Caucasus area; Russia and Iran have the common interests in preventing the United States from its involution in the Caspian Energy issue. Meanwhile, Russia still has important economic interests in Iran and Russia mainly imports weapons from Iran. Iran, on bad terms with the United States, is still favorable to Russia.

On Iran nuclear issue, there is both overlap and conflicts of the interests between the United States and Russia, and the latter is greater than the former. Iran causes the nuclear proliferation in the Middle East with its nuclear weapons, out of line with the interests of both the United States and Russia. The United States and Russia arrive at the agreement on requiring Iran to give up its nuclear program. However, the ultimate goal of the United States is to make a change in Iran regime, greatly damaging Russia’s economic and strategic interests in Iran. Since 2003, in some consultations between powers on Iran nuclear issue, Russia successfully withstood the pressure of the United States on punishing Iran. In 2005, Iran resumed to process the highly enriched uranium which triggered off the common complaints from international community. Russia boldly proposed that the Iran highly enriched uranium process could be transferred to Russia, which is opposed by the United States. In this way, the consultation between the United States and Russia on Iran nuclear issue reached an impasse. In 2009, Obama “restarted” the US-Russia relations and promised to stop deploying missile defense system in Poland and Chech, defer Ukraine and Georgia’s participation in NATO, and relive the pace of NATO’s eastward expansion for Iran’s support for the United States on Iran nuclear issue. In the second half of 2009, Russia changed its attitude to Iran nuclear issue dramatically and showed no objection to making sanctions on Iran. However, the United States and Russia are in structural confliction. Iran is crucial for Russia, and it seemed that Russia swung its attitudes to Iran nuclear issue but, in essence, it weighed up the pros and cons in order to maintain its interest to the largest extent.

Second, influence on the US-EU relations. Currently, the greatest common ground for the United States and EU on Iran nuclear issue is that they exert diplomatic pressure on Iran and force Iran to give up its nuclear program. So far, the United States and EU have been on the same side on Iran nuclear issue in both International Atomic Energy Agency and the UN Security Council. However, it does not mean that the United States and EU hold the same policy on Iran. EU and the USA are different in interests, concepts and challenges in Iran issue. Compared with the United States, EU has great dependency on energy of the Middle East. Each year, EU imports 80% of petroleum from Persian Gulf averagely. In the economic and trade field, EU and Iran highly depend on each other. Since 1995, EU has become the main trade partner of Iran. Since December, 2006, Iran Central Bank has gradually adopted Euros instead of US dollars and decided to use Euros for petroleum trade settlement, from which EU can gain huge economic interests; in 2008, despite the tension between EU and Iran on Iran nuclear issue, from January to May, the value of export of EU to Iran reached 4.47 billion euro, an increase of 17.8% over the same period last year; Iran imported over 40% from and export 36% to EU. Additionally, there are still huge Muslim communities in European countries and they exert influence on Europe’s policies on Islamic countries to some extent. The policies of the US government on the Middle East are subjected to Jews community. The future situation can be regarded as the standard for predicting the change in EU-US relations on Iran nuclear issue.

Third, influence on Sino-US relations. After Islamic regime took the office in Iran in 1979, the United States has changed its role of ally to enemy to Iran while China has kept and even expanded its normal friendly relations, which triggers off the vigilance and annoyance of the United States. Such issue has always been a negative factor influencing the Sino-US relations for many years. Iran, a power of west Asia, is considerably important for China in terms of its strategic role and abundant power sources. But Iran is of far less significance for China than that of Russia and EU. In terms of Iran nuclear issue, the United States is the state party; EU is the mediator; Russia is deeply involved in it and China is relatively detached from it. By no means, will China play the role of host on Iran nuclear issue as it did on North Korea nuclear issue or play the leading role as Russia does. China will not play the leading role but it still holds a key vote for it. What China concerns most is that Iran gives up the nuclear weapons and interests of China in Iran suffers no damage; and no damage will be posed to world peace by Iran nuclear issue. The United States misinterprets the Sino-Iran relations suspiciously and place impractical expectation for China’s position in Iran nuclear issue, with which to “test” if China is a “responsible country”. It will inevitably influence Sino-US relations negatively and impose obstacles to resolve the Iran nuclear problem.