Evaluation and Prospect on Obama Administration’s Adjustment in External Policies---Zhu Feng

Zhu Feng    Editorial board member of Peace and Development, Professor of College of International Relations of Beijing University

Obama has taken the office for a year and the United States has become clear about the orientation and objective of its external strategic adjustment and its further evolution and development will exert profound influence on the US foreign policies and world situation.

I. Prominent Tendency of “De-Bushization” in National Security Strategy

First, guided by the “revolutionary diplomacy”, Obama administration seeks for “update and innovation” in the traditional foreign security strategy in order to get rid of difficulties in overseas strategy caused by unilateralism and military antiterrorism of Bush administration and pursue the rational goal of overseas strategy. This is the outstanding feature of Obama administration in make judgment and choice of strategies. Obama administration stops setting “global antiterrorism” as the key word of the US foreign security strategy. However, it puts focus on hitting AlQaeda in Afghan and the Middle East and stopping Taliban from undermining the political order of Pakistan and Afghan. Obama made a new plan for the US overseas military deployment and stopped setting Islamic terrorism and extremism as the key strategic hitting targets but attempt to make a compromise with global Muslim, improving the role and image of the United States in people of Arab countries and Muslim people. Obama administration adjusted military and strategic objectives on two “leftover battlefields”. In Iraq, the United States turned its focus from hitting rebel forces to assisting Iraq in maintaining regime stability and economic development; in Afghan, it turned its focus from thoroughly beating Taliban to preventing Taliban from regaining regime. This phenomenon intensively reflected that Obama administration’s strategic choice for getting free from Iraq and Afghan and in essence, the sight was lowered to the basic one on Iraq and Afghan issues.

Second, driven by the concept of “smart power”, Obama softened the confronting positions of the United States on the issues of “failed state”, “rouge state” and “potential rival state”, and changed the policy of “making changes with pressure” in Bush Era to the new policies for achieving US strategic goals by conducting comprehensive dialogues, strengthening contact, seeking compromise and using both hard and soft tactics. Obama administration announced to have diplomatic dialogue with Cuba and contacts with representatives of Sudanese government and appoint high level officials to visit Burma; to adopt “hostage diplomacy” with North Korea and show no refusal to “bilateral contact”; to appoint the envoy of the Middle East to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian problem and to provide the financial aid of US dollar 900 million for Palestine; to require the Palestine to intensify its strike on the Taliban within its territory as well as to offer great economic aids to Palestine. In the initial stage of Obama’s administration, it did its utmost to have direct dialogues with Iran. Though no substantive change in its relations with “rogue state” is found until now, it will continue its orientation of its “contact” strategic adjustment with “rogue state”. On July 15^th, 2009, Secretary of State Hillary made the speech based on “multiple partner era” diplomacy, which reflected such new characteristic that the United States continued to keep its leadership on one hand, and it was willing to solve its security concerns gradually through dialogues and contact.

Third, the United States quickened its space to transfer its global strategic focus to the Asian-Pacific region. The United States made the judgment that the greatest medium and long-term international strategic pressure came from the “rising big countries” in Asian-Pacific region and held that the instability of the order in the East Asia may impose long-term strategic pressure to the United States. It was the fact that the United States would transfer its strategic focus to the east. The Obama administration substantively paid more importance to Asia strategically and diplomatically, and went all out to strengthen the influence of the United States in Asian economy, politic and strategy. At the beginning of Obama’s taking of his office, he put the stress on “Asian diplomacy” with such key intention that the United States would show no weakness to China just out of China’s revival or prepare for suffering “China’s expansion in East Asia and its damage to the interest of the United States”. For such purpose, the United States further expanded its cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in security and economy, supported the position of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations over the dispute on territory of South China Sea; kept closer relations with India and signed new US-India Security Cooperation Agreement and made the promise to sell advanced weapons to India to encourage it to play a greater role in the Indian Ocean and South Asia. On the North Nuclear issue, the Obama administration changed Bush’s US-centered policy but turned to strengthen the policy coordination with Japan and South Korea. It became the principal guideline of Obama administration in East Asia Security Strategy to strengthen the US military deployment in a well-targeted manner and further consolidate and intensify the alliance and partnership systems in Asia, and jointly seek and respond to the rise of great nations.

Fourth, conceive and restart the negotiation between the United States and Russia over nuclear disarmament, ease the tension between the United States and Russia since the Russia-Georgia War and create the conditions favorable to solving Iran nuclear problems and stabilizing the situation of the Eastern Europe. Obama administration lists the stabilization of US-Russia relations in the important diplomatic agenda and seeks the breaking point for development of relations between the two countries by “restarting” the US-Russia negotiation on whittling down nuclear weapons. In order to arouse the active response from Russia, Obama administration posed a line of postures to “show its friendliness” to Russia including putting off deploying missile defense system in Poland and Czech and postponing Georgia’s participation in NATO. In his inaugural address, Obama made a special mention of Russia’s position as “ally” with the United States for anti-terrorism, and when heads of the two countries met, Obama praised Prime Minister Putin for his “outstanding efforts for Russians”, quite different from Bush administration’s stern blame on Putin’s policy for it resulted in the “retrogression of democracy”. In 2009, a better change occurred in the US-Russia relations. 

Fifth, advocate multilateralism and change the conservative position that Bush administration held over the issue of decreasing green house gas emission and signing Kyoto Protocol, make great efforts to raise the international image of the United States and rebuild the leading position of the United States in such global issues as climate, environment protection, nuclear disarmament and reform of the international financial system. Replace G8 mechanism with G20 and make G20 a long-term and systemized mechanism, becoming the key conception of Obama administration in responding to global financial crisis and advancing the re-building of the international financial orders in “post-crisis” era. The advanced multilateral progress involved many fields, nonproliferation, antiterrorism, resolution to hot topics on regional security, climate change and new energy sources, but the focus remained to emphasize the “leading role of the United States in the world”.

II. Obama’s Evaluation on Adjustment in Foreign Strategies

In terms of foreign strategies, Obama administration stopped pursuing the goals and value of the United States with its powerful military and economic strength only but paid more attention to conducting cooperation with international community and became closer to international response. Facing the current stern financial crisis, Obama administration put reinvigoration of economy in the core of its policies and “development” and “human right” were listed as two most important means of the US diplomacy and security affairs. It made such big adjustments mainly forced by the political and economic pressure at home and aboard and it had no choice but to “shrink” its battlefront and restore the “image” and “responsibility” of the United States. 

The achievements Obama administration made with these adjustments on foreign strategies reflected in correcting the loose relations between the United States and Eurasian allied during Bush Administration and reinvigorating the favorable impression and confidence of the western countries on the United States and deepening the strategic dependence of the whole western world on the United States. Such achievements could be seen not only from the improvement in the relations between two sides of the Atlantic Ocean and Obama’s “Star reputation” in Europe but also from the improvement in the US-South Korea relations and the strengthened strategic existence of the United States in the South Asia and Southeast Asia. Obama offered aids for Pakistan and strengthened the relations with India, making the United States more influential in the South Asia than ever before.

The “troop withdrawal and increase” of the United States in Iraq and Afghan revealed that Obama administration began its new strategy of “eastward antiterrorism”. Obama administration’s troop increase in Afghan did not only aim at stabilizing Karzai governance and striking the retaliation of Taliban force but, more importantly, aim at monitoring Pakistan in the turmoil and preventing Afghan and Pakistan from being the terrorist lair as well as encouraging western allies to shoulder more responsibilities.

But on the other hand, since Obama assumed the office, it became difficult to make any progress in peaceful work in the Middle East and the North nuclear issue landed deadlock and the Iran nuclear issue came into tension abruptly. No breakthrough has been made on many major international and regional hot topics with its “smart power” diplomacy.

III. Prospect of Obama Administration for Adjustments in Foreign Strategies

In 2010, the adjustments were still made in US foreign strategies. The domestic economic situation was still harsh, the most significant factor in checking Obama administration’s foreign strategies. The poll showed that most Americans were indifferent to US policies and overseas military operations. The masses of the American people turned their attention to “domestic affairs”, largely influencing the movement of adjustment Obama administration made in its foreign strategies.

In 2010, Obama administration may put its priority to Iran and Pakistan instead of Afghan in its foreign affairs. The domestic political situation in Iran, especially the development of nuclear problem, would influence the U.S. policies on Iran. Restricted by the domestic economy and geo-strategy environment of the Middle East, Obama administration may not adopt military attack to Iran but impossibly it would endure the Iran’s nuclear power. The more instable situation the Iran was in, the more possible for the United States to exert pressure on Iran with international sanctions. In the future, the United States would adopt the policy to make greatest efforts to prevent Pakistan from “being seized by the terrorists as a nuclear state”.

In the short term, Obama administration still face huge challenges over the international hot issues like Middle East Peace and North Korea and Iran nuclear problems. If the US trade protectionism is still on the rise, the coordinating role of the G20 mechanism in 2010 global financial economy will be sharply weakened. It is difficult for Obama to make any achievements in promoting global multilateral emission reduction before the Congress approved the new Clean Energy and Security Act.

Though the Obama administration has kept an active and practical attitude to China after it assumed the office, no change is found in its basic framework of policy on China. Strategically, it sets the goal for guarding off and pinning down China and in its strategic orientation, it still views China as the biggest “uncertain factor” of the world order in the future. It is worth noticing that in order to respond to China’s rise, Obama administration constantly intensifies its strategic consultation and policy coordination with allied partner countries as well as strengthens the military building and deployment in a well-targeted manner. Selling weapons to Taiwan, Dalai Lama issue and US trade protectionism for China probably became three major factors in landing the Sino-US relations low ebb. Therefore, China needs seek the win-win benefits in Sino-US relations on one hand, and guard off the new development in strategic containment and soft containment of the United States on China.