Abstracts for Volume 6 of Peace and Development in 2018

By ShenYamei, Associate Research Fellow and Deputy Director of Department for American Studies, CIIS. Currently, populism is developing with a B momentum in the United States, with it from both right and left simultaneously exerting its influence and entering the American mainstream politics, which has brought impacts on many American internal and external policy traditions. The endeavor initiated by populism to redistribute political power is not yet completed in the United States. Populism has its own inherent roots to arise in the U.S., which include the intensified economic inequality, the demographic change challenging the traditional White supremacy, the deepening division between the Whites from the low and middle classes and the elites, and the backlash of the social vulnerable groups against the policies pursued by the Obama administration. Although it is not naturally taking an anti-China stance, populism echoes the rising of a new round of “China Threat” clamor, which has sounded the alarm for China. Populism has the same economic and cultural roots as well as thinking logic as the “anti-China” public opinions in the United States which are both exploited by elite politics, we have to remain on alert and prevent them from coming together.

The US Mid-Term Election in 2018 and Its Political and Social Impacts

By Dr. Zhang Wenzong, Associate Research Fellow and Director from the Division for American Political Studies of the Institute for American Studies, CICIR. The US mid-term election is a “mid-term exam” for the Trump administration. In the context of accelerated political polarization and social division in the U.S., the contest between the two major parties has tended to be more fierce, and the intensity of “political violence” during the election, the huge election expenses and the high level of voter mobilization have never been seen over the past decades. After the election, the Republicans have remained in control of the Senate, while the Democrats have regained control of the House of Representatives, thus bringing new changes to the US political ecology. The election results indicate that the “identity politics” championed by the Democrats has achieved some success, while the “Trumpization” within the Republicans is continuing, with the liberal and conservative forces in the U.S. locked in an intensified seesaw battle. In consideration of the 2020 national election, the Democratic Party in control of the House of Representatives of the new US Congress will increase its checks and balances on Trump, and try its best to block Trump’s and Republican agendas, with the fierce political contest in the future being likely to further divide the American society.

The Japan-India Strategic Cooperation: Characteristics, Motivation and China’s Response

By Dr. Sun Wenzhu, Assistant Research Fellow of the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies, CIIS. In recent years, Japan’s cooperation with India has gradually been raised to a strategic height, with political cooperation taking the lead as well as economic and security cooperation doing well, which have expanded beyond their borders. The Japan-India strategic cooperation is conducive to raising their respective international political status, gaining economic benefits, and reducing their security concerns, and also conforms to the needs of the heads of state of both countries to consolidate their respective political status at home by achieving diplomatic success. At the same time, their strategic cooperation suffers setbacks for blurring objectives and different emphases. The Japan-India strategic cooperation may add more security and political pressure on China, and impede the implementation of projects under the “Belt and Road” initiative, while it may also provide some positive opportunities for China. As a result, to properly respond to the Japan-India strategic cooperation, China needs to find the convergence of interests with both Japan and India, and lead their strategic cooperation toward an open one.

India's Policy towards China and the American Factor after the Dong Lang Crisis

By Dr. Xie Chao, Assistant Research Fellow from the Institute for International and Regional Studies, Tsinghua University. Since 2018, the Indian government has adopted multiple measures to actively relax its tense relations with China. The motivation of such a change has derived from the dual character and its interaction in the Indian-China and Indian-US relationships. Currently, India’s policy toward China is characterized by the co-existence of competition and cooperation: India distrusts China in politics and security, while it admired China’s economic achievements, and recognizes that cooperation with China is conducive to India’s economic development. India’s policy toward the U.S. is characterized by the co-existence of suspicion and cooperation: the U.S. is drawing India to its side politically and in security, while India is always blaming for not receiving enough strategic returns. Therefore, India, to some extent, distrusts both China and the United States. Fighting without breaking in India’s relations with China is the basis for India to be able to adjust its China policy. Since the beginning this year, Trump has step up his trade protectionist practice on a global scale, which has impacted the India-US relationship and led to the rising of India’s strategic suspicion over the United States. This constitutes the external dynamics that has driven India to adjust its policy toward China.

On the President Election of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and the Political Trend in the “Post-Abe Era”

By XuWansheng, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor from PLA Information Engineering University. On September 20 of 2018, the ruling LDP began its president election, which unfolded amid an atmosphere in which Abe, the only political Bman, dominates the political scene in Japan through his long-term administration. During the election, the incumbent president Abe was pitted against the  former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, who were locked in a fierce debate over such policy issues as the roadmap for constitutional revision, how to evaluate the “Abenomics”, and the way to run the government. With the popular support from the party barons and grassroots members, coupled with favorable comments from the public opinion, Abe once again won a landslide victory in the president election of the party, thus making Japan’s politics enter the “post-Abe era”. How the Abe administration will lead the nation further into the future, the line of constitutional revision advanced by Abe, and Abe’s successor are issues that call for our close attention.

The New Strategic Trend of France in the Indo-Pacific Region and Its Impacts

By Liu Yanfeng, Doctoral Student from the Institute of International Relations and the Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing University and Feng Liang, Director of the Center for Maritime Security Studies of Naval Command College, and Deputy Director of the Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing University. The Indo-Pacific region is becoming the next geostrategic center of the world. As the importance of the region is rising, the current French government has made adjustment to its strategies. Different from its predecessors, the Makron government has attached more importance to adjustment to and balance in its economic and trade cooperation with the region, with its foreign policy emphasis on multi-dimensional multilateralism turned toward selectiveness and differences in levels and importance, thus adding more ideology and military colors to its external strategies. Although the new government has remained consistent with the previous governments and progressive in change, it has laid greater store by adjustment and balance. The strategic adjustment of France is the result of comprehensive interaction of various factors, such as the change of power structure, the intention to reshape its major power status, and maintenance of the liberal international order. Though the development of strategic adjustment of France calls for further observation, it has indeed added more uncertainties to the international strategic environment, the security situation in the Indo-Pacific region and the bilateral relations between China and France. Therefore, China should remain alert and pay close attention to it.

Challenges Posed by Extremism to the Middle East Security in the Post-ISIS Era

By Dr Zhou Yimin, Lecturer from the School of Marxism, Xi’an Technological University. Heavy losses of the ISIS on the battlefield have heralded the ending of an era. However, the fall of Mosul does not mean a complete end to Islamic extremism on the world stage. Whether the remnants of the ISIS or the established extremist groups like al-Qaeda, or the potential extremists currently unknown to the outside world, they are all waiting for opportunities to rise. Their existence will pose serious challenges to social order, national security and ideological stability of the Middle East, and relations among major powers. Any carelessness would ignite new unrests and conflicts, giving rise to the spread of extremism to other regions. Therefore, the international community should remain in close cooperation to fight against extremist forces in the Middle East, while helping the Middle East countries complete their domestic reconstruction and transformation so as to build a world where different civilizations co-exist in harmony.

Motivation and Prospect: Russia’s Strategy to Participate in the Construction of the “Silk Road on Ice”

By Xiao Yang, Associate Professor from the Institute of International Relations, and Director of the Center for Arctic Studies, Beijing International Studies University; and Guest Researcher of CPDS. This paper is intended to elaborate on what factors that affect Russia’s strategic decision to participate in the construction of the “Silk Road on Ice”, and the process in which Russia reconstructs its Arctic strategy, as well as the priorities and results the inherent driving force of the strategy may produce. As the construction of the “Silk Road on Ice” is based on the bilateral economic and trade relations, this paper focuses on two core points, namely shipping and oil & gas exploitation in the Arctic, which constitute the core factors of Russia’s economic development in the Arctic. The vision management of Russia’s participation in the construction of the “Silk Road on Ice” not only depends on economic sustainability in its Arctic region, but also subjects to the geostrategic environment of the Eurasia. On the whole, Russia’s stable and sustainable Arctic strategy is a key prerequisite that would ensure smooth development of the “Silk Road on Ice”. This paper also dwells on the decision logic of Russia’s Arctic strategy so as to decide on the extent of its fitting to the “Silk Road on Ice” initiative and paths for their synergy.

The Reality and Prospect of Trump’s Infrastructure Construction Program

By Hu Shaocong, Assistant Research Fellow from Department for American Studies, CIIS. Trump believes the US infrastructure has been in bad repair and decay, which is not in line with US major power status. Thus, he emphasized the US infrastructure should be rebuilt. After getting into office, President Trump proposed an ambitious infrastructure construction program, and committed to invest US$ 1.5 trillion in the program so as to revitalize the US infrastructure. This program covers airports, roads, and major buildings. However, limited by funds, legislation and local interest groups, this program has made a slow progress over the past two years without achieving any actual results. This paper elaborates on the major contents of this infrastructure construction program, analyzes the difficulties for its implementation, and forecasts the future of the program.