Abstracts for Volume 5 of Peace and Development in 2018

Three Geopolitical Theories and the “Belt and Road” Initiative

By TengJianqun, Senior Research Fellow and Director of Department for American Studies, CIIS. Over the past hundred years, the geo-politician have proposed three theories depicting how to control the world from geographical perspective: the “Sea Power” theory raised by Alfred Thayer Mahan from the U.S. believed those who controlled the sea would control the world; the “Heartland” theory raised by Halford John Mackinder from Britain believed those who controlled Eurasia would control the world; while the “Rim Land” theory raised by Nicholas John Spykman from the U.S. believed those who controlled the rim land would control the world. Not long ago, the former White House strategic adviser Steve Bannon proposed that China’s “Belt and Road” initiative embodied the three theories, intending to control the world by its promotion, and every country of the world should reject it and so forth. We must point out the three geopolitical theories differ from the “Belt and Road” initiative fundamentally and cannot be mentioned in the same breath, as they are different in time and space.

The “Belt and Road” Initiative in Cambodia: Development, Difficulties and Prospect

By Dr. Shao Jianping, Associate Professor from the College of Political Science and International Relations, Honghe University and Guest Researcher of South and Southeast Asia Research Institute of China (Kunming); and Zong Wei, Guest Researcher from the College of Political Science and International Relations, Honghe University and Doctoral Student of Politics and Government, Universiti Putra Malaysia. As Cambodia is located at an important junction on the “Belt and Road” as well as China and Cambodia are in a real comprehensive strategic cooperation partnership, Cambodia has fully indentified with and supported the “Belt and Road” initiative, which is running well in Cambodia. Over the past 5 years, Cambodia has become a model in the “Belt and Road” international cooperation. Looking ahead, although further promotion of the “Belt and Road” in Cambodia will meet with difficulties and challenges, on the whole, the “Belt and Road” initiative fits in with the national development strategy of Cambodia, and China and Cambodia are expected to enjoy stable relations, all of which have determined that the “Belt and Road” initiative will enjoy a bright future in Cambodia.  

The Baluchistan Issue in the Construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

By Prof. Zhang Xinping, Dean and Doctoral Supervisor from the School of Marxism, Lanzhou University; and Zhang Liguo, Graduate Student from the School of Marxism, Lanzhou University. The Baluchistan of Pakistan is a place the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passes, and where the terminal of the corridor ---- the Port of Guadar --- locates. As a result, it is of great geostrategic significance as far as its geographical location, natural resources and the safety of the corridor are concerned. Nevertheless, national separatist and religious extremist forces have long existed in the Baluchistan, where violent terrorist attacks occur frequently. Coupled with backward social and economic conditions, the Baluchistan has become a serious issue posing severe challenges to the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor by worsening the environment for investment, threatening local security, causing political disorder, and giving rise to external interference.

The Development, Prospect and Challenges of the “Belt and Road” in Myanmar

By Liu Ying, Lecturer from the College of Political Science and International Relations, Honghe University. Myanmar has an important position and plays an important part in the construction of the “Belt and Road”. Since the “Belt and Road” initiative was proposed, Myanmar has taken a very positive attitude toward and responded favorably to the initiative, resulting in substantial progress made in multiple cooperation domains (known as “Wutong”: policy, infrastructure, trade, financial, and people-to-people connectivity) under the framework of the “Belt and Road” initiative. Looking to the future, cooperation between the two countries will go deeper and broader based on the construction of the “China-Myanmar Economic Corridor”. Meanwhile, we should face up to the spillover effect of Myanmar’s internal conflicts as well as the negative impacts brought about by the extreme resource nationalism and environmental nationalism in Myanmar on China-Myanmar bilateral cooperation.

The Dollar Hegemony Crisis and China’s Strategic Options from the Perspective of the “Belt and Road” Initiative

By Tian Xingjian, Undergraduate from the Business School, Shangdong University; and Dr. Jiang Yong, Research Fellow, CICIR. Although the Dollar remains strong currently, the structural crisis of the Dollar hegemony is getting more significant: first, the credibility of American currency is missing because of lacking physical wealth; second, the greed brought about by the Dollar hegemony has not only misbalanced the American economic structure and intensified the social disparity between the rich and the poor in the United States, but also much discredited American capital along with the departure of capital from the real economy; third, the existing Dollar hegemony has deprived the real economy of the world of getting real value compensation, exerting bigger negative impact than positive impact on world economy. As far as international forces are concerned, the South is rising while the North is declining, which has weakened the foundation of the Dollar hegemony and narrowed its space, bringing the international financial order to the crossroad of breaking up the old one and making a new one, and providing a historical opportunity for China to build a new international financial order through the “Belt and Road” initiative. However, Chinese financial internationalization should proceed in accordance with its ability so as to avoid a new “Triffin Dilemma” in economy, and the “William Trap” and the “Thucydides Trap” in geopolitics.

A Probe into the Political Changes in Malaysia

By Dr. LuoYongkun, Associate Research Fellow, CICIR. The 14th national election is a landmark event in Malaysian history, which witnessed the downfall of the United Malaysia National Organization (UMNO) that had run the country for over 60 years and the refreshing of political environment in Malaysia. Superficially, it was the result of the “1MDB” scandal, but in fact the reason was that the “Reformasi” Movement led by Anwar has shaken the ruling foundation of the UMNO, while the UMNO itself was unable to satisfy the diversifying demand of the Malaysian population. Since PakatanHarapan came to power, quite some new political figures have emerged in Malaysia, and Malaysia has seen a weak prime minister for the first time in history, with different parties contesting fiercely in both cabinet and parliament, while the UMNO still has important influence over the political development in Malaysia as an opposition party. All of these are new changes Malaysia has never seen before. However, the two major political contradictions ---- the contradiction among the Malays and the contradiction between the Malays and the overseas Chinese residents ---- in Malaysian politics have undoubtedly remain unchanged, which has determined that Malaysia has not changed fundamentally. In diplomacy, Malaysia will emphasize “Malaysia first” and actively develop relations with China and Japan on the basis of consolidating relations with the ASEAN countries.

An Initial Analysis of the Motivation and Challenge of Restructuring East Asia Diplomacy

By Abe Shinzo, by Liu Yuli, Doctoral Student of International Politics from Northeast Asian StudiesCollege, Jilin University; and ShenHaitao, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor from Northeast Asian Studies College, Jilin University. At the time when regional political structure in East Asia is undergoing changes, the Abe administration has redefined Japan’s global role, and made major adjustment in the fields of politics, economy, diplomacy and security. In Japan’s overall diplomacy, the U.S. is put first, relation with China has got warm again after a cold spell, relations with ASEAN countries have been strengthened, relation with the ROK is in positive coordination, and relation with the DPRK has made limited improvement. In security domain, Japan has taken a series of actions, lifting the ban on the right of collective defense, implementing a new security act, and expanding its military power. In economy, Japan has given priority to promoting bilateral and multilateral free trade negotiations and energy export. This paper has analyzed the motivation behind Japan’s adjustment of its East Asia diplomacy on three levels, namely the right-wing attribute of Abe Shinzo, the right tilting tendency within Japan, as well as the rise of China and the change of political landscape in East Asia. Policy adjustment made by the Abe administration is bound to meet with certain challenges, while exerting certain negative impacts on East Asia region.

The Refugee Crisis and Response of the International Community from a Global Perspective

By Wang Xiaoli, Post-Doctoral from Social Sciences Academic Press and Researcher from the Center for Arab Studies, Beijing Language and Culture University; and CaiPengming, Associate Research Fellow from the CPDS and Doctoral Student of Department of International Relations from School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University. Currently, a huge army of refugees has emerged globally because of war and environmental problems. The international community and the refugee receiving countries have provided assistance to the refugees out of humanitarianism, but at the same time refugees in large numbers are bound to have contradictions with the local population of the receiving countries over drinking water, food and jobs. In addition, problems involving refugee management would inevitably affect the internal safety and public security of the receiving countries. Therefore, once there is a tide of refugees emerging in the neighboring countries, whether to open the border or refuse their entry and whether sticking to morality or prioritizing domestic interests have become a difficult choice for the rulers of countries concerned to make. The refugee issue has gone far beyond the national borders, which has become an issue or a hard problem for the world involving common security for mankind in the 21st Century. This paper dwells on analyzing the major causes of the global refugee crisis, its impact and the tactics the international community is expected to take to respond to this crisis, and also discusses the relationship between the refugee crisis and China.