Abstracts for Volume 2 of Peace and Development in 2018

In-Depth Adjustment of the US' China Policy

by Tao Wenzhao, Honorary CASS Member; Research Fellow of the Institute of American Studies, CASS; and Guest Researcher of CPDS. The US' China policy is undergoing the most profound adjustment over the past 40 years since the two countries normalized their relations. This policy adjustment began when the Obama administration proposed the Asia-Pacific "rebalancing" strategy. The major reasons for the policy adjustment include: the change in comparative power between the two countries, disappointment of the US with China, and the systematic misunderstanding and misinterpretation by the US of China's strategic intentions. The policy adjustment toward China by the Trump administration, which is different from those of his predecessors, is of fundamental significance. The political atmosphere for the US' China policy has turned severe, with being tough on China becoming the new indication of "politically correct". All-round, multi-domain and regular competition and game will become a new normal of the China-US relationship, and the US is also forging an international pressure on China. Faced with the US policy adjustment toward China, China should take it seriously, while remaining cool-headed and calm. To manage well the relationship between safeguarding legal rights and maintaining stability, efforts should be made to mitigate, lessen and weaken the differences and disputes between the two countries through dialog and consultation; distinguish the merits and demerits of different problems, and take different approach to deal with them; and continue to advance the diplomatic relations featuring win-win cooperation to crack the international pressure.

Looking at the Status Quo and Prospect of the Situation on the Korean Peninsula from the Perspective of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games

by Dr. Li Jun, Director and Research Fellow of the Korean Peninsula Research Section, CICIR. Since the fourth nuclear test by North Korea in January of 2016, the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula has been escalating, with the possibility of a war looming large. Since the beginning of 2018, parties concerned, taking the opportunity of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games, have engaged in benign interactions, bringing about warm airs and a period of peace on the Korean Peninsula seldom seen before. In the medium and long term, it is not likely that the situation on the Korean Peninsula will deteriorate to military conflicts or a war. Nevertheless, given the fact that the fundamental contradiction in the Korean Peninsula issue remains unsolved, the possibility still exists that the situation on the peninsula may get tense again or even lead to a war, which cannot be ignored. To extend the momentum of current peace and promote further relaxation of the situation on the peninsula, countries in the Asia-Pacific region need to make joint efforts, and especially the key parties of the nuclear issue ---- North Korea and the US ---- should make some changes.

China-Russia Relationship: Full of Strong Dynamics

by Zhao Mingwen, Senior Research Fellow from China Institute of International Studies, and former political counselor to foreign countries. Under the joint efforts made by the heads of state of China and Russia, the level of political mutual trust and strategic coordination between the two countries have kept escalating and fruitful achievements have been made in the fields of military, trade and economy, science and technology, finance, energy, and culture and humanity. Although there are some unsatisfactory issues existing in the China-Russia relationship and the new US administration tried to "rope Russia in to restrain China" before and after taking office, all of these will not affect the momentum of rapid development of the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination. It is a long-term strategic choice made by the two countries to develop the relationship of mutual beneficial cooperation, which will not be affected by external factors, as a wide range consensus has been reached in Russia to develop relations with China. The potentials for mutual beneficial cooperation between China and Russia are huge and its prospect is broad.

On the Nature of the Russia-US Relationship and the Development Trend of Such Relationship after Putin Was Reelected

by Wang Lijiu, Research Fellow from the Institute of Russian and Central Asian Studies, CICIR; and Research Fellow from the Institute of Eurasia Social Studies under the Development Research Center of the State Council. The relationship between Russia and the US is very complicated, which has in fact not changed substantially along with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the establishment of a new-typed relationship between the two countries, as containing and counter-containing as well as maintaining basic strategic balance have remained the major content of such relationship, resulting in the Russia-US relationship undergoing ups and downs, with going down as the major trend, over the past 20 years since Putin came into power. In March of 2018, Putin ran for the presidency for the fourth time and got reelected by a high vote. This presidential election to some extent, has become a test by the Russian people of the internal and external policies pursued by Putin in recent years. Putin's reelection by a high vote has not only reflected that the Russian people support the resolute counterattacks by Putin against the sanctions and other tough policies imposed by the West including the US on Russia, but also indicated that it is very difficult for the Russia-US relationship to take a turn for the better in the future during Putin's new term in office, letting alone getting out the spell that "there is no worst, but only worse".

Russia's Diplomatic Trend during Putin's Fourth Term as President

by Zhang Jian, Ph.D. and Lecturer from Department of Diplomacy and Foreign Affairs Management, China Foreign Affairs University. As a major power of Eurasia, Russia's diplomacy has attracted much attention of the world. At the important historic juncture, this paper is intended to review and sort out Russia's diplomacy during Putin's third term as president from CIS, Western, Eastern, bilateral and multilateral perspectives. While analyzing Russia's diplomatic orientation, this paper will sum up problems and challenges facing Russia in diplomacy, namely Russia's anxiety over the waning of its major power status and the resurgence of geopolitics. The reelection of Putin as president in 2018 has resulted not only from his charisma, but also from factors relating to Russia's internal and external situation. During Putin's fourth term as president, Russia's politics and society will remain relatively stable, while Russia will be more concerned with safeguarding its major power status and rising up to security challenges in the face of worsening external situation. Meanwhile, Russia will seek economic development in an all-round way.

The Prospect Assessment after the "IS" Is Badly Beaten

by Gong Xiaofei, Doctorate Student of International Politics, Nanjing University, and Research Fellow from the Center for Asia-Pacific Development Studies, Nanjing University. In the past two years, under the severe strikes launched by the counter-terror forces led respectively by the US and Russia, the government forces of Syria and Iraq, and the Kurdish armed forces, the terrorist organization "IS" in the Middle East has suffered great losses in military strength, territories and revenues. In July of 2017, the "IS" lost Mosul in Iraq it had occupied, which marked the decline of the "IS" under heavy attacks. This terrorist organization is not yet demised, but now undergoing changes in organizational structure, tactics and terrorist means. The transformed "IS" will continue to diffuse extremist ideas, stage terrorist attacks and gain financial support by using network technology and social media. In addition, the spread of the "IS" combatants, the return of the transnational "jihadists", the widespread branches of the "IS" and a host of loyal groups will continue to pose threats to the security situation in the Middle East and the world. For this, the international community should strengthen collaboration in driving the remnants of the "IS" out of Syria and Iraq, assisting their post-war reconstruction, eliminating the soil on which the "IS" lives, and establishing the anti-"IS" international cooperation mechanism based on coordination among major powers, so as to crumble its global networks and do away with the threats of its re-rising.

The Development Trend of Terrorism in Central Asia and Its Management in the "Post-IS" Era

by Liu Jiwei, Graduate Student from the College of International Relations, National University of Defense Technology. The IS is collapsing under the strike of the international anti-terror coalition, with the international war on terror entering the "post-IS" era. Affected by the returning of members of the terrorist groups in the Middle East and the situation change in Afghanistan, the terrorist activities rooted in the political and economic conditions in Central Asia have manifested some new changes: the scope and targets of terrorist attacks have become internationalized; the terrorist ideology has taken a clear trend of indigenization and rejuvenation; and the means of terrorist attacks are featuring more extremism and violence. These new changes of terrorist activities in Central Asia have exerted negative impacts on the security and stability of the region and neighboring regions, while the Central Asian states generally increasing the momentum of fighting against terrorist crimes, making efforts to establish sound and socialized mechanism to prevent terrorist crimes, and actively cooperating with the international community to seek control of the regional security situation.

The Evolution of International Humanitarian Assistance: the Origin and Development, Connotation and Challenges

by Ren Yanyan, Doctorate Student from the School of International Studies of Renmin University of China; and Fang Lexian, Professor from the School of International Studies of Renmin University of China and Guest Researcher of CPDS. International humanitarian assistance has become an important content of contemporary international community and international relations. Humanitarian crises brought about by natural disasters and man-made conflicts have led to great increase of humanitarian needs, while the rise of conservatism and populism as well as economic downturn has posed threats to the prospects of the development of international humanitarian assistance. This paper is intended, from a historical perspective, to elaborate systematically on the origin and development as well as features of its connotation, on the basis of key historic events, the scope of assistance, aid behavior change and the appearance of relevant systems, believing that the system of international humanitarian assistance and its connotation has undergone a course of change from a narrow sense to expansion and to contraction. The connotation of humanitarian assistance at present stage is returning to one of narrow-sensed assistance with the rise of populism, whose trend deserves our attention. Therefore, a retrospect of and reflection on the evolution and development of international humanitarian assistance is conducive to our better understanding the challenges and dilemma facing international humanitarian assistance at present stage.

The UN Peacekeeping Operations in Profound Transformation and China's Participation

by Jiang Zhenxi, Council Member of the UN Association of China. With the development and change of international situation, the UN peacekeeping operations are undergoing profound change. First, the "UN peacekeeping operations" have been changed to the "UN peace operations", with their scope further expanded to include such segments as "peacekeeping", "conflict prevention" and "peace building". Second, a full play has been given to regional organizations in peacekeeping operations. Third, emphasis has been laid on gender equality by increasing female participation in peacekeeping. All of these are in line with the general direction of UN reform. As a major power, China has been actively participated in the UN peacekeeping operations since 1990, taking proactive actions and undertaking responsibilities as a major power, which has been hailed by the international community.